It's becoming increasingly difficult to evaluate the seriousness of global health threats. Concern about swine flu seems to be fluctuating hourly, ranging from "We're all doomed" prognostications to more pragmatic "It's flu. So?" shrugs.
In the UK, the government appears unable to decide where swine flu should feature in its ever-increasing list of serious issues. Worry, don't worry, worry, don't worry… the instructions alter frequently. In a decision that must surely have boosted Royal Mail's income, the NHS sent letters out some weeks ago to remind individuals of their "unique personal NHS Number[s]"; the term "pandemic" occurred no less than three times. A vaccination programme is being rolled out, although it's unclear how many doses will be available before the start of the "normal" flu season and, as the vaccine isn't produced in the UK, there are fears that it may not arrive at all. Now there are mutterings about schools not reopening at the beginning of the autumn term for fear of spreading the virus.
At present, fewer people are suffering from swine flu than from déjà vu: these scares are becoming commonplace. In 2003/4, the severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS] virus was being reported as a potential global killer; in 2005/6, it was the turn of avian flu, with experts insisting that 50% of the global population might die. Swine flu itself isn't a new virus: in its June 2009 Bulletin, the World Health Organisation looked back to 1976 when an outbreak in the USA led to plans to vaccinate the whole population; the threatened pandemic failed to happen and the government lost credibility.
This is a useful warning. Governments, health authorities and other organizations need to be more responsible about the information they publish and way it is published. While there have indeed been deaths from the present outbreak of swine flu, and may well be more, the mixed messages being sent out help no-one.
This is a situation in which govenments need to be less enthusiastic about embracing openness. Shout "Pandemic!" too often and no-one will believe it any more. One day, and perhaps that day will be soon, there will indeed be a pandemic, a global outbreak whose threat is real and widespread. If the idea of pandemic is linked only with scaremongering, it will, as in the story of The Boy who Cried "Wolf!", be all the harder to convince people of its reality.
In the UK, the government appears unable to decide where swine flu should feature in its ever-increasing list of serious issues. Worry, don't worry, worry, don't worry… the instructions alter frequently. In a decision that must surely have boosted Royal Mail's income, the NHS sent letters out some weeks ago to remind individuals of their "unique personal NHS Number[s]"; the term "pandemic" occurred no less than three times. A vaccination programme is being rolled out, although it's unclear how many doses will be available before the start of the "normal" flu season and, as the vaccine isn't produced in the UK, there are fears that it may not arrive at all. Now there are mutterings about schools not reopening at the beginning of the autumn term for fear of spreading the virus.
At present, fewer people are suffering from swine flu than from déjà vu: these scares are becoming commonplace. In 2003/4, the severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS] virus was being reported as a potential global killer; in 2005/6, it was the turn of avian flu, with experts insisting that 50% of the global population might die. Swine flu itself isn't a new virus: in its June 2009 Bulletin, the World Health Organisation looked back to 1976 when an outbreak in the USA led to plans to vaccinate the whole population; the threatened pandemic failed to happen and the government lost credibility.
This is a useful warning. Governments, health authorities and other organizations need to be more responsible about the information they publish and way it is published. While there have indeed been deaths from the present outbreak of swine flu, and may well be more, the mixed messages being sent out help no-one.
This is a situation in which govenments need to be less enthusiastic about embracing openness. Shout "Pandemic!" too often and no-one will believe it any more. One day, and perhaps that day will be soon, there will indeed be a pandemic, a global outbreak whose threat is real and widespread. If the idea of pandemic is linked only with scaremongering, it will, as in the story of The Boy who Cried "Wolf!", be all the harder to convince people of its reality.
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